Kevin->Write(thoughts, browser, time)

The Cavs are in the NBA Finals! I didn’t do a Pistons series preview, but if I had, I’d have picked them in seven games. Instead, behind four straight wins, including a transcendent double overtime Game 5 victory in which LeBron James scored the final twenty-five Cavalier points in Jordaneseque fashion and a strong Game Six performance from Daniel Gibson, the Cavs closed out Detroit in six games. Now, they face a dominant Spurs team that is clearly the best in basketball, having rolled through Denver, Phoenix, and Utah—making the Cavs arguably the worst team that the Spurs have seen so far in the playoffs.

Point Guard: Larry Hughes vs. Tony Parker. Parker is perhaps the quickest player in basketball, and scores a large percentage of his baskets in the paint after blowing by defenders. The Spurs run a ton of Parker-Duncan pick-and-rolls, and the Cavs will need to figure out how to defend them. His jump shot is merely decent, and occasionally shaky. If I were coaching the Cavs, I’d put Pavlovic on Parker, and hope that his length will bother Parker and force him into shots with a high degree of difficulty. Hughes has been playing for a few games now on a torn plantar fascia, but has actually played rather well: he’s stayed within himself athletically, picking his spots to make an impact, and has shot the ball well from behind the arc. Gibson will continue to take a lot of his minutes as long as he keeps his level of play where it has been in the Eastern Conference Finals. Edge: Spurs

Shooting Guard: Sasha Pavlovic vs. Michael Finely. Finley is a former All-Star and a gritty playoff veteran who is capable of carrying his team offensively for stretches. He’s been lighting it up from three point distance during the playoffs, in particular. He’s clearly lost a step on defense; the Cavs should look to isolate with whoever he guards at opportune times. Pavlovic played quietly well against the Pistons; he will see many open three point shots in this series and will need to knock them down. His defense will be very important, whether it is on Parker or Finley or Ginobli. Edge: Spurs

Small Forward: LeBron James vs. Bruce Bowen. Bowen is a limited offensive player—his only real weapon is a three point shot from the corner—but he is among the top perimeter defenders in basketball. However, LeBron is so much bigger and stronger than him that he has had success against Bowen in the past. This is a key matchup in the series: if Bowen comes close to containing LeBron without making him the focus of the San Antonio defense, the Cavs are finished. LeBron is playing the best basketball of his life of late: Game 5 was unbelievable, of course, but he was very good to outstanding in the other five games of the prior series as well. The Cavs will probably need two Game 5-esque performances from him to win this series. Edge: Cavs

Power Forward: Tim Duncan vs. Drew Gooden. Tim Duncan is probably the best player in basketball over the past decade. He is an outstanding rebounder, perhaps the best low post defender in basketball, and surely has the most well-rounded offensive arsenal on the low block. Gooden lost some minutes to Varejao and Marshall in the Pistons series, but his rebounding and reliable mid range game and jump hook will be valuable. The key for him is defense; if he has trouble handling Duncan one-on-one—and he probably will—the Cavs will be very vulnerable to the Spurs’ excellent three point shooting. Edge: Spurs

Center: Zydrunas Ilgauskas vs. Fabricio Oberto. Oberto is a hustling, aggressive, flopping dirty thug, in the Anderson Varejao mold. He is a solid rebounder; the Spurs might not run a play for him on offense during the entire series. Z also played very very well during the Pistons series, carrying the team on offense down the strech during Games 3 and 4. He will need to crash the glass along with Varejao and Gooden to create second chance opportunities, and make good decisions with the ball when he posts up and is doubled. Edge: Cavs

Bench: Anderson Varejao, Daniel Gibson, Donyell Marshall, Damon Jones vs. Manu Ginobli, Robert Horry, Francisco Elson, Jacque Vaughan, Brent Barry. These are two of the best benches in basketball. Ginobli is an All-Star caliber combo guard who could start for just about every team in the league. No one has made more big shots in the playoffs in the last ten years than Robert Horry, and he still has a little in the tank. Elson is a young energetic big body. Vaughan is a solid backup point guard, particularly on defense. Barry is a playoff veteran, an excellent shooter and still athletic. On the Cavs side, Gibson had an outstanding breakout series against Detroit, shooting the ball extremely well and holding his own on defense. Varejao will play his irritating pest role to the max. The minutes of Marshall and Jones will be dictated by their shooting; Cleveland had some success in the Detroit series with a James/Varejao/Marshall/Jones/Gibson lineup: superstar, energy, three dangerous shooters. I’d like to see more of that until the Spurs figure it out. Slight Edge: Spurs

Coach: Mike Brown vs. Gregg Popovich. Mike Brown learned everything he knows from Popovich, and he is growing into one of the better defensive coaches in the game. Popovich is the best basketball coach in the world right now. Edge: Spurs

A lot of folks think that the Spurs are going to roll the Cavs in this series in four or five games. Here are some reasons to think otherwise:

1) Rust and Hunger. The Spurs are coming off a long break, and the Cavs are playing their best ball of the season. They know that they are huge underdogs, and they will be loose and leave everything on the court.
2) The Cavs are 2-0 against the Spurs this regular season. This doesn’t mean a whole lot, but psychologically it means this: the Spurs have walked on the court twice with these Cavs,and twice walked off losers.
3) Home Court. The Spurs have the advantage, but some forget how solid the Cavs have been at home all season long, even against the Western Conference. The 2-3-2 format helps them: it’s not hard to imagine the Cavs up 3-2 after five games, holding serve at home. However, it is hard to imagine them winning a closeout game on the Spurs’ home floor.

Prediction: Spurs in 7.