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In this space in October, I predicted that this Cavalier team would go 57-25 and earn the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs, and would lose in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Heat. In a regular season plagued with inconsistency, these Cavs struggled to a 50-32 record for the second straight year, backing into the #2 seed in the playoffs by one game as the Bulls choked the spot away in a loss to the Nets on the last day of the regular season. They'll face the Wizards in the first round for the second straight year, but this Wizards team has been decimated by injury: Gilbert Arenas put an MVP caliber season and Caron Butler put up his best season yet, but a torn meniscus will keep Arenas out for the season while Butler's broken hand is unlikely to heal in time to get him back on the court for this series. Most pundits are predicting an easy win in this series for the Cavs; let's break it down!

Point Guard: Larry Hughes vs. Antonio Daniels. Last year in this space, I wrote that Arenas puts up big stats but doesn't yet scare me. This year, he scares the hell out of me; I'm very happy to see him on the sideline for this series. Filling in for him is Daniels, a guy who could start for a lot of teams in the league, including the Cavs. He's a solid shooter and defender, but there is no realistic way for him to approximate Arenas' production at this position. Hughes is a lanky, jumping jack streak shooter who can guard three positions and get to the rim when he wants (which isn't all that often). We're paying 70 million for him; for half that, you'd love him. Still, he stayed healthy this year and put up reasonable stats. The experiment with Hughes at point guard has worked out very well-the size of Hughes, Pavlovic, and James has created matchup problems for a lot of teams, and LeBron dominates the ball to the extent that the Cavs don't need a pure playmaker.Edge: Even

Shooting Guard: Sasha Pavlovic vs. DeShawn Stevenson. This could be an interesting matchup. Pavlovic had a breakout season this year, improving his lateral movement to the degree that his defense allowed him to stay on the floor for longer stretches, while he showed an ability to get to the rim, which in addition to his solid jump shooting allowed him to take advantage of the constant double teams on LeBron and become an offensive weapon. Stevenson is a solid NBA shooting guard in his prime: he shot well from behind the arc this season, and is big and physical enough to defend the position. He's not as quick as he used to be; that could be an area that Sasha could exploit. Edge: Even

Small Forward: LeBron James vs. Jarvis Hayes. LeBron had a slight regression in his counting stats this year, settling in at a near-MVP level. He's still very young, but it is possible that he's peaked at this point and will continue to be among the league's best players for the next fifteen years, but not take over in a Jordan-esque manner. The Wizards have absolutely no one who can guard him; he should average about 15 dunks per game in this series. The loss of Butler is crucial here: Jarvis Hayes provides only mediocre three point shooting and decent defense. He is perhaps the worst starter on any team in the playoffs. Obscenely Huge Edge: Cavs

Power Forward: Drew Gooden vs. Antawn Jamison. Here's what I wrote in this space last year:

"Battle of Huge College Stars from Big Time Programs Who've Been Slightly Disappointing In The League. Gooden has hustle, rebounding, and a nifty jump hook but almost nothing else. Jamison does everything pretty well and has big advantages over Gooden in athleticism and a better jump shot with 3 point range. Gooden will have problems with Jamison on defense; the Cavs might do well to put LeBron on him and go small with Ilgauskas/Marshall, Hughes, Jones, and Snow at times. This matchup is an Edge: Wizards; how big of an edge it is will go a long way towards deciding the series."

Gooden has improved his all-round offensive game this year; his jump shot is now a weapon for 15-18 feet. Jamison is still better, but not enough better to make the difference this year. He's one of the most unique players in basketball: he's a star-caliber player who gets his points on garbage and threes, which are the usual provance of marginal offensive talents. It will be interesting to see how he reacts to being the focus of the Wizard's offense in this series. He'll have to be absolutely incredible for them to have a chance. Slight Edge: Wizards

Center Zydrunas Ilgauskas vs. Brendan Haywood. The Cavs rely on Z for offense much less this year than in past years: they have enough other weapons that they no longer need to slow down and post him up. He doesn't take the 15 foot jump shot that used to be his bread and butter anymore. He's still a big body who rebounds well, gets tip-ins, and can be a factor on the block as a third or fourth option. Haywood has never developed a polished offensive game, but he's a big bodied athlete who can defend Z and clean the glass. Slight Edge: Cavs

Bench Anderson Varejao, Eric Snow, Daniel Gibson, Donyell Marshall vs. Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila, Some Warm Bodies in the Back Court. Varejao does his hustle and energy thing to great effect. Cavs fans feel a lot better seeing Snow as a steady backup point guard then as a no-offense starter. Gibson has taken all of Damon Jones' minutes of late; he's smallish but has shown quickness and shooting ability. Marshall is another quality big body with solid offense and defense. As for the Wizards, Etan Thomas is Brendan Haywood with more offense and less defense. Songaila is a soft big guy who takes too many jump shots. The backcourt bench options are atrocious: if you're thinking about playing Roger Mason or Donell Taylor heavy minutes in the playoffs, you'll be going home early. Edge: Cavs

Coach: Mike Brown has really stepped up the Cavs' defense this year, but he looks lost in pressure situations and he isn't a strong enough personality to kick LeBron in the ass when he needs to be kicked. Eddie Jordan is a solid NBA coach who has been screwed by injuries this season. Slight Edge: Wizards

Pick: With the Washington injuries,this Cleveland team is much better on paper. The pundits are picking Cavs in four, but I've seen this team play a lot this year: they're wildly inconsistent, and they're going to piss away a game in Washington. Cavs in Five.